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The Intersection between Modern and Indigenous Forecasting Systems in Kenya
From: Columbia University
| By:
Robinson Ngugi |
EDITOR'S INTRODUCTION |
Without understanding how farmers actually receive and use climate information at the individual farm level, technological advances by climatologists cannot improve their lives. In an effort to learn how African farmers interact with climate information, the United Nations Development Project (UNDP) recently sent surveyors into the field. One of these surveyors, Robinson Ngugi, a professor at the University of Nairobi's Department of Range Management, focused his survey efforts on the intersection between modern and indigenous climate knowledge systems in the Mwingi district of Kenya. |
 or the UNDP, I studied the use and extent of integration between so-called modern and indigenous knowledge systems in the Mwingi district of Kenya. We wanted to know how information flows from the meteorological service provider down to the farmer. First, we followed the means by which information is disseminated, examining Kenya's institutional framework. Then we looked at what happens at the farm level--whether the farmer receives information from the radio, TV, newspaper or word of mouth. Finally, we asked questions on what the farmers do with the information and how they use it to make their decisions. |
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| Map of Kenya, highlighting Mwingi district. | |
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About Mwingi
We divided our survey of Mwingi into three divisions and confined ourselves to farms off the main highway. The district falls within the arid and semi-arid eco-climatic zones of Kenya, so part of it is transitional. Its topography covers both ends of the spectrum--with western Mwingi's higher climate offering greater rainfall and increased crop cultivation, and eastern Mwingi's lower, drier climate remaining more dependent on livestock. |
Hot and dry for most of the year, Mwingi's temperature ranges from a minimum of 14-22° centigrade (57-72° Fahrenheit) to a maximum of 26-34° centigrade (79-93° Fahrenheit). February and September are the hottest months of the year, with generally low and unreliable rainfall. It has long rains between March and May, and short rains between October and December. The short rains are more reliable than the long, so that's when farmers get their main food. |
All farmers in Mwingi keep some livestock--cattle, sheep and goats. When necessary, they sell the livestock to buy food. Core crops include maize, sorghum, beans, millet and sweet potatoes. There has been a lot of emphasis on growing hybrid maize, which has caused problems because it requires more rainfall. Although beekeeping has been a traditional activity in this area, the government has only recently started promoting it as an alternative economic activity. |
Survey results
According to our survey, we found that the main sources of climate information are modern. Farmers reported receiving climate information from the following sources:
- Radio, 45 percent
- TV, 15 percent
- Newspaper, 10 percent
- Word of mouth (friends, neighbors, relatives, etc.),
27 percent. |
I want to mention that although this word-of-mouth percentage seems rather low, we found that it is a very important method of passing information. Those who listen to the radio or get information from the TV disseminate that information on to other farmers. One of the farmers said that the weather or climate is part of the culture. They talk about climate whenever they meet; it's part of the small talk between people. You exchange greetings and then you say something about the climate. |
Then we looked at information reliability. We wanted to know how farmers perceive their sources of climate information. Is it reliable? Can you count on it or not?
- 55 percent of listeners said the radio is reliable.
- 25 percent of viewers said the TV is reliable.
- 16 percent of readers said the newspaper is reliable.
- 30 percent of recipients said word of mouth is reliable. (People who rely on word-of-mouth climate information often cannot read the newspaper, or cannot afford to buy a newspaper, radio or TV.)
Since the question was not quantitative and not based on any research as such, these ratings have to be interpreted with caution. It's just the farmers' own intuition as to whether the information is good and whether they can rely on that information. |
We also wanted to know whether the farmers use this climate information to make decisions.
- 68 percent of farmers reported using meteorological information in their farm-level decision-making processes.
In examining this category, we realized that "use" did not imply that the meteorological information was the only information the farmers based their decision on. The farmers may listen to the radio, but they also consult their indigenous knowledge system. |
We then asked the farmers whether they are aware of the indigenous knowledge systems. It's apparent that every farmer has accumulated a wealth of such climate information. We could conclude that every farmer is a weatherman or a weatherwoman in his or her own right. They have methods and techniques of predicting what's going to happen. They have used this information over time. This traditional information is part of their culture and is communally owned. |
Some people within the community are known to be the experts--the seers, the diviners and the rainmakers. They live with the farmers who consult them. For example, as we were interviewing in one of the markets, another group was performing a ceremony. It was very dry, so they were beating their drums and performing a ceremony to get the rain to come. |
When we looked at the typical indicators they use to predict rains, we were given a long list of physical features--including stars, plants, animals, insects, wind direction and wind speed. They use this whole range to determine what the odds are for having enough rain. They know that some trees sprout just before the rain, while others get their fruit. They know that when certain insects and frogs come out, it indicates that a drought is around the corner. The farmers also monitor the nature of the rainfall patterns. They said that any time they get two consecutive good rains, they know a drought is just around the corner. As far as they're concerned, a good rain may spell doom. |
Balancing indigenous and modern approaches
In conclusion, it was clear that Mwingi farmers have access to both modern and traditional indigenous information systems. All use some form of climate information, although their individual preferences may vary.
- 48 percent prefer traditional, indigenous weather information.
- 42 percent prefer modern meteorological information.
- 10 percent are indifferent about the source of their climate information.
The farmers use this meteorological information, whether indigenous or modern, to make important farm-level decisions--such as where to plant, when to plant and what kind of seeds to use. These decisions may be made consciously or subconsciously, but they clearly use the climate information. |
Currently, the traditional knowledge rests very much in the minds of the older people. It's fast disappearing. I'm not trying to glorify the indigenous knowledge, but I think it can play a role. The young people are not ready to use the indigenous information system, which they consider backward. Christianity and education are other factors eroding the power or the trust that is placed in this system. Christians see the indigenous knowledge systems and some of the rituals and rites that go with it as related to devil worship. As one Christian lady said, "God sends the rains. He sends it when he wants to." |
Both types of knowledge have their own merits and demerits. The reasons that indigenous knowledge sources are preferred includes the fact that it blends well with the cultural norm. It has been tested and used for a long time. The modern meteorological information is foreign, as far as they are concerned. It's complicated, and they cannot understand it. The technical language is one of their main constraints. They cannot really identify with it and it's not usually in the local vernacular. Also, when they say it's going to rain, it's a very general prediction. They want to know when it will rain on their farms, not within 10 miles of their farm. Those are some of the limitations of modern information technology. |
These are just the highlights of our survey. In the future, we hope to duplicate such studies across different ethnic groups and ecological zones. |
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